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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.