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Just eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of the side's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.

As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, they seem strangely fragile – but currently the margins are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again versus United.

The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.

This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.