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For a brief period, the former US president seemed to adopt a firm approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following making statements of "serious consequences" in August in case Putin persisted blocking truce talks, he finally imposed considerable sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action significantly hindered the Russian leader's capacity to finance his war effort in the region.

However, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, which was drafted by American and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European involvement, the former president has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's initiative would in practice benefit Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative in reality compromise that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business experience, the former president continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, as if handing Russia a portion of Ukrainian territory will please the ruler. But, Russia's invasion is not simply about dominating a destroyed swath of deindustrialized land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious goal to destroy it so it stops serves as an appealing standard for the Russia's population of the accountable governance that his growing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Land Concessions

While freezing in position the already separated regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would force Ukraine to surrender the whole this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting Russia with area that its forces have been failed to occupy in exceeding a lengthy period of warfare, this surrender would make Ukrainian defensive positions severely weakened.

The area is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that represent a critical barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, giving Putin a unobstructed path to the capital should he later choose to restart the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate additional fighting more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to diminish the numbers of its troops from their existing large number troops to a cap of 600,000. Significantly, the plan places no similar limits on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's campaign to characterize Ukraine's legitimate government as extremists, Trump's plan states: "Any extremist ideology and actions must be opposed and prohibited." Apparently to underscore this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal places no requirement that the Russian leader risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

To be sure, the plan has the Russian Federation commit not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its position of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has violated comparable accords in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its former Soviet atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a handback of seized areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should anyone have confidence in Russia now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on international security guarantees. While the plan promises a "immediate joint armed reaction" should the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics include fuzzy to troubling. The plan would not just block the nation alliance membership but also preclude member states from stationing military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thus precluding the reassurance force, likely headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to stop Russia from replenishing his reduced forces, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Concern

A separate side agreement apparently would grant the nation with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "serious, deliberate, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an attack endangering the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. But unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary defense against renewed invasion – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, including Trump, to respond with force to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not