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Amid the widespread uncertainty following the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its first major military attack on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and abduct its leader – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.